Foresight 2:  Markets during a crisis by Hasselbanker

Updated: Mar 30

Hasselbanker's reaction to the spreads rising and the first FI statement on the market when

COVID 19 hit the market. (We are now eagerly awaiting the FI reaction to the EPL decision to suspend the season!)


In short, mass hysteria in markets from whatever source leads to two things:

1

The vast majority flee to safe havens. Think about the clientele of Football Index, a high percentage may be self employed- they’ll be pulling money out because they’re worried about shortages of income in the real world. They may pull assets out of FI and into a standard bank account. All of the football fixtures being cancelled will be a major concern. No one really knows the extent of where things stand at the moment and more and more players will get infected.

Irrespective of the reminder about the duration of the FI bet (3 years), most wont see it like that. Mainly because there will be people on the FI market who don’t have the prolonged foresight needed to hold firm (same applies in financial markets).

2

The other side, a much smaller percentage of people will be targeting aggressive trades to make money on players who are ‘undervalued’. But knowing when to buy is key! At the moment, it’s probably a little too soon. But they will want to buy as the players hit the bottom of the price trough.

The market:

FI are concerned about the cash outflows. They’ve tried to release statements to reassure traders. There are new incentives being used. But let’s be clear, the financial incentives they have given isn’t because they are being nice or arbitrarily because ‘just because of coronavirus’. It has real underlying purpose- to encourage traders not to panic and pull money out.

FI will be doing all they can to ensure this downward trend doesn’t continue. They will be very concerned. The current spreads are an action to support this and protect the market as a whole.

In my line of work I am seeing unprecedented actions by banks. Entire banking work forces are being sent home globally- never been done before! The extent of the panic is huge and likely not appreciated by the mass public yet.


Westy's reaction:

Cheers Hasselbanker! Nothing like a cheery read when you are in deep to crumbling markets everywhere! Almost got me missing my old 0.25% 'loyalty!?' ISA...


Luckily the outbreak happened at a time when I was already having to hold back funds from FI. I had previously nearly overstretched myself, and normally would scrape together all I could during a bonus period. So I haven't sold any and certainly wont be instant selling on those spreads! So FI's strategy has worked regarding my money staying in. We will have to wait and see if I am a sucker to this, or if yet again patience and calm is rewarded.

My portfolio has always been built around players that earn dividends. So I am still winning dividends pretty much daily, whilst many holds are plummeting. I am a long term trader so I will try and ride out the capital depreciation and make the most of the dips using dividends. I am concerned enough to not be depositing at this point, but I will stash the cash ready to pounce when I feel comfortable in the state of the world again.

As Hasselbanker points out the type of traders in reaction 2, I am now waiting to judge the bottom of the dips, as much as only one trader gets to sell at peak prices, only one gets to buy at rock bottom!

Overall, I am still positive about FI. The most recent statement mentioned large cash reserves, and the recent Mike B podcast explained some of the big projects going on behind the scenes. If they could just give us a few concrete markers to make long term trading decisions e.g. clarity on the PB matrix being set for a decent time period!, I'd be lining up big money to purchase the players that have performed well on the matrix whilst they are in dips.

Good luck to those that have held firm during this! And best wishes to those that unfortunately have had to withdraw!

Vespasian's reaction:

I am very happy with how Adam Cole and the team have handled events up until now. they came out with a strong succinct statement and widened spreads to stabilise the platform and reduce panic. On top of that they have given us a generous deposit bonus as well as ongoing double dividends.


I've maxed the net buy bonus and made some excellent media dividend returns.


I'm now one of the traders Hasselbanker mentioned, waiting for the 'bottom' so i can bargain hunt. I'm ready for FI to remove the band aid and let us trade again.


In the meantime, I look forward to the likely forthcoming announcement and possible extension of 'In Play Dividends' (IPDs) or new promotion off the back of confirmation that the EPL is postponed.


Football Index have so far been both reactive and proactive, and if that's them saving their own skin, we are all the better for it!


Onwards and upwards!