Hindsight 1: The Big Bobby Beric Blunder!  by Westy​

Updated: Dec 1, 2020

Trialing a strategy away from my usual PB data driven buys, I tried to dabble in a big IPD hold (I had done a few small IPD holds previously). I trawled fixtures for a cheap striker with lots of games in the 30 day IPD window. Beric stood out as he was St Etienne's target man and in the Slovenian squad for some Euro qualifying group games. 9 games in 30 days seemed too good to miss. 1 goal would cover costs of trading in and out, and any other goals would be profit!

To my despair, he was then heavily rotated and benched. He played about 5 minutes of Slovenia's 2 games. Whilst St Etienne went through a rough patch leading to a managerial change.

Beric didn't score in any of the first 8 games of the 30 day window. I should have realised my mistake and tried to sell to market as he had risen to 51p as other traders may also have seen the fixture opportunities. In hindsight, I should have instant sold if I couldn't market sell, but back then I was very IS averse! Then, out of nowhere, in the 9th match on the 90th minute he scored a winner as a sub! It looked like this could be his turning moment...I held instead of selling on the goal spike and took the IPDs.

Rather than this game winning goal vs Lyon getting his career back on track, he suffered a managerial change. I read some Tweets about Puel (the new manager) saying he needed to offload some players. But I thought at Leicester he liked a big man & small man combo, so I was hopeful! I still held on to Beric thinking any game now, he will score a brace and go up into profit for me to sell...but he didn't. Stubbornness took over. I topped up to lower my average cost thinking I would get out on the next profitable time.

January transfer window came and alas links to PB teams for a Beric move. SPAL made sense as I had also read that Petagna (another hold of mine) was being sought after. SPAL were linked to Beric and in my mind the deal was made; one target man out, one target man in. However, then Petagna got his move but with a deal that he'd stay at SPAL for the rest of the season! No Beric move. Beric was then linked to another French side in Ligue 1, but they refused the transfer fee. I thought he'd end up staying til the summer window so held.

Right near the end of the January window, I suddenly saw a Tweet about Chicago being interested in Beric. I dismissed this. He's 28, in a PB league (which he is probably totally unaware of, but FI warps the football mind!), he's trying to get to the Euros. Surely he wouldn't go to the MLS!

The next day it was official!

Robert Beric 2019/20 price chart credit IndexGain (indexgain.co.uk)

So far on Football Index, at the time of writing, I have sold 240 players to market. 237 at profit. It is a bull market, so by no means am I saying I am an expert trader! But within the bull market period, I'd advise always trying to sell to market first! Currently, this is my 3rd Instant Sell and my 3rd loss.

In Hindsight:

  • Don't be stubborn!

  • Don't chase a loss!

  • Listen to the transfer news!


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