Insight 10: Spotting an opportunity by MrWh1te


#mctominaychallenge


In this article, we hear again from MrWh1te who previously gave us Insight 9 to his 5000 players challenge Footstock strategy. He loves a football trading challenge and you can follow him on twitter to keep up with his latest plans @Challenge_FIS.


This is another very calculated strategy that I first got wind of on our own forum (for a better forum, and articles, experience on mobile devices, use our app version found here!); a great place to hatch plans and ask for help with them. We even saw a few McTominay negotiations going on to help MrWh1te get towards his goal!


Another F.T.I. forum trader @Dronny Gaz had already tipped us off on 50 McTominays (approx £1100) as a good way to unlock the 2 Epic Defender Reward for a chance at getting Trent Alexander Arnold. He also warned about making sure you try and time when using reward coupons! You can read his tip here.


I was very tempted to join in the challenge as it is a clear plan with possible high rewards, but the timing of this challenge for me personally just wasn't right to do so; it would have meant I'd be putting my deposits over a planned limit for now (I think that's a good insight anyway- set your limits and stick to them, another opportunity will come along in the future - gamble responsibly). But I have spotted a few traders already sharing their successes with this challenge- well done for backing your trading skills and seeing the plan through! I will start stocking up a balance for the next plan MrWh1te comes up with.


Read on to find out how it works and why it is worth the effort!


Many thanks to MrWh1te for sending this in!



Spotting An Opportunity



Sometimes in life a chance comes along that could provide a big pay day. I believe FS is one such chance. But within FS, there are many, many opportunities to take a risk and see if it pays off. The combination of lockdown from football, legend status for Tommy McTominay and the reward system has provided one such opportunity. I am writing this article from after my buying period due to not wanting to lose my edge. This is one of those times when more people following the challenge means it won’t succeed!


The Maths


200 McTominays by end of June to achieve the legend reward.


For this challenge I set a base price of £20. This is what I believe the card to be worth over the period it is held.


Earning free cards give a minimum reward (at current prices of 4.1% and max of 41%; the difference between £164 and £1652. That is a huge sum!

Free cards would not need to be traded until a time of my choosing to maximise that profit.


The plan would be to get in with £4000, buy the cards and then get out for £4000 minimum as quickly as possible, withdraw the £4000 and keep the profit for the next challenge. This would ideally be after he drops to epic, so that we hit those rewards too. If he doesn’t hit epic before I sell, or if I get an offer to good to refuse, then the min-max % of reward cards drops to 3.2%-32.4% which is still a hefty bonus.


Positives


  • I believe his price could rise, especially over the long term. Should I fail on the task because his price rises then I can sell the cards I bought at a profit and hopefully bank a few free cards along the way.

  • Should his price fall, the % of rewards rise to cover this event.

  • Plenty of opportunities to sell.

  • Maguire moving down will help defender cards- TAA could be the only epic defender. He may need to be sold straight away as many people have the same idea, if you don’t want to hold the card for tournaments.

  • If he leaves United, it is likely for another premier league club, at which his PPG could be even higher.


Negatives


  • Large percentage of bankroll on one player is a higher risk than I would like.

  • The outlay is more than I wished to use on FS and as such it would be nervous playing, which is NEVER a good idea.

  • Maguire may not move up (or Trent might) which would kill some of the profit.


The Future


This part of the article has been written since buying has completed.


This challenge has brought up many ethical decisions to be made, which I had not anticipated when it began.


  1. Do I sell at £20 to the next person doing the challenge?

  2. Do I hold for £25 as the 25% increase (£1000) recoups my original deposit and leaves me freerolling?

  3. Some people dropped their asking prices slightly to help me complete the challenge. Do I give some profit back?

  4. Does it impact positively (free cards = profit which is reinvested in the site) or negatively (flooding market) on FS which in turn impacts my own collection value?


I have genuinely loved seeing people pull together to help me complete this challenge. Even though it was a bit beyond my comfort zone, it has been one of the most fun challenges to date.


As ever, I wish to stress I do NOT suggest you do this challenge if you are in any way unsure. Some of the regulars think I am crazy to attempt it!


Vespasian's comments


Thanks again to Mr White for another strategic challenge with a lot of planning put in. I also commend the keen eye to see such an opportunity so quickly.

When I first heard the idea on the grapevine, like many, I was sceptical. It seemed a risk as I believed McTominay could be due a drop with real football returning and the risk he could be out of the team with Pogba's return. But then when I heard a bit more from the horse's mouth, it began to make sense... and the drive and passion is clear- you know Mr White will succeed once he starts!

Congratulations, it's certainly been a fun talking point on Slack and amongst the community, and it did tickle me to see several traders on Twitter using the hashtag '#mctominaychallenge' - its officially a thing of legend now.

In terms of the ethical side, I know how seriously Mr White considers this when making his bets. Personally I think this one is fine. It was always clear what the challenge entailed and how it would end. It speaks volumes of the Foostock community that people readily got involved by selling their McTominay for a little cheaper than they maybe had listed, but it's been part of the fun and I'm sure they were all happy to do so. Selling at £25 (if possible) won't hurt anyone; If people have started the challenge, the McTominay they have already bought are in profit, so nothing lost.

Really interested in the next challenge!

Will you take the #mctominaychallenge ?


Good luck!


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