Insight 18: GK trading strategy by ChallengeManFS (Footstock)

Updated: Feb 5


Dear readers,


Earlier this month our subscribers were sent a 'subscriber (and website) only' article- nothing too special this time, but something we will plan on doing every now and then to give extra insights or news to those signed up. You can subscribe on our home page (it's free and will always be free!).


Sorare, Footstock and Football Index all seem to be having a good period of activity now. Perhaps it's down to lock down boredom? Or post Xmas recovery? Maybe news of the vaccine being churned out? New customers? Whatever the reason, it is great to see!

On a slight tangent before we get to the main article... We have had a lot of messages about the platforms this month. We've heard from a lot of people who signed up a while ago consider returning.


One main tip about this specifically for Sorare, is if you joined a while ago, tried the rookie league and then didn't carry on, you can delete that account and start again fresh. You will find the 'Destroy Account' option in Account setting.



The point of doing this is to start fresh with a new start up squad. If you use our affiliate link, you will get a boosted start budget of 500m instead of 400m- the extra 100m makes a big difference! Plus, if you go on to buy 5 new cards (not from secondary market) you will receive a free rare card! You will also restart with Sorare's FAQs being more detailed with links to support you and the new user interface being supportive with pointers to click through. One main strategy tip is to make sure you get at least 3 decent GKs in this start squad as they are hard to come by (expensive) and you will be able to use them beyond the rookie league in future tournaments that allow 1 common card entered.


The rookie league is designed to get you trained up as a new manager. You win cards just for entering each game week and can win better cards based on your performance. Each team you enter needs 5 players, so make sure you get 5 regular starters. Players that don't make your rookie league squad can be entered into the 'Special Training' where they will gain XP.


There is a lot to learn- it can feel a bit overwhelming, but take your time and you might find it's another fun fantasy football platform with a few financial twists! I am very excited with the Eredivisie now being included, I used to love this league on old Football Managers.

Today's article gives us an insight to a Footstock user's (ChallengeManFS) GK trading strategy. ChallengeManFS is an interesting Footstock account to follow with numerous plans hatched along the way.


Personally I haven't traded or sought GKs out too much on Footstock. This season, I've been happy choosing mostly between Fabianski (3*) or De Gea (2*) as I'm still mainly competing in the lower contests where star counts are miserly!


It is easy to forget the trading side to Footstock, especially if like me you are spreading your time and money across multiple platforms. There does seem to be a user approach split, lots focussing solely on team entries weekly, some focussing on buying and selling with little team entry focus and some doing a mix of both.


This GK strategy and recent form rises like Gundogan's (see below) do inspire me to spend a bit more time in the trading market.



Thanks to ChallengeManFS for sending this in, guest articles are always welcome (just get in touch!)


Thanks for reading,

Westy

Introduction


This article talks about the perceived value in goalkeepers compared with the actual value. I feel strongly about goalkeepers having a solid future in the game at much higher prices than they are now and have gambled a considerable outlay. It is a longer term bet than I normally would do, but one I feel is worth it for the value alone.


Disclaimer


I own a lot of goalkeepers and hold at a big loss. I am still buying up goalkeepers and will continue to do so. Of the 5 goalkeepers that are currently 4 star, I own nearly 600. At a combined cost of £1800 and an average of £3 per card. I own 1500 goalkeepers currently and will continue to top up on these. I estimate all my keepers cost roughly £3000, bringing the average buy price to £2 across all cards. I have a lot listed for sale, at a price higher than I paid, and I won’t be dropping that price.


The Maths


The maths on the goalkeepers is simple, they are cheap. Because of the scoring matrix, GK hold their ppg pretty well. They might jump from 3 to 4 star and back again, but their value is still far lower than the credit they could potentially be swapped for.


Let’s use Pope as an example. I hold 200 Pope. He is currently available for under £2. If he was to sell for £15, that would be the full £3000 investment recouped in one player. Now, £15 seems a ridiculous valuation (and it is) but consider that credit for an inactive is £15 for a 4 star player, and that valuation then doesn’t look so crazy. To be clear, I do NOT think Pope will reach £15. But I absolutely see GK hitting £5 in the 4 star category. If that happens, my top 600 keepers recoup my investment and I still have another 900 GK to trade with. And if Pope goes inactive end of season, that 200 cards at £15 credit is a massive £3000 credit, which is a fair few bronze entries!

Why £5?


I believe GK will hit over £5 for a variety of reasons:


  • The reward system. For an early article on using the reward system visit Insight 10: Spotting an opportunity by MrWh1te (footballtradinginsights.com) It is out of date and the rewards have changed slightly but it gives an example of how you can work out potential profits.

  • Goalkeepers have been massively (imo) over-supplied and as this supply diminishes the price will go up.

  • Goalkeepers are more unlikely to drop big star ratings.

  • Low depth. I know from experience buying, it only takes a few cards to come off the market in one go and prices start rising fast.

  • I would like to believe that future games may incorporate GK in some way.

  • The credit swap system for inactives value 4* at £15 and 3* at £5 currently, which underpins the price and shows just how much potential value there is in them.

  • Rarity – less 4* players come out of packs and they won’t be auctioned all the time there are too many of them. This is crucial. When Mendy was rare, he was regularly changing hands for £12-15 and some sold up to £25.


Positives


  • The price of GK are at a very low price, I don’t believe they can/will drop much lower.

  • At less than £2 for a GK, there is room for a future price spike.

  • New games could favour GK.

  • A price rise in GK will benefit the whole market.

  • Goalkeepers starting matches is fairly easy to predict.


Negatives


  • Credit paid on inactives can change, which would change the risk.

  • It is potentially a long term bet. Whilst you could feasibly buy now for £2 and sell for a 50-100% profit by the end of the season, swapping for credit is a much longer-term hold and GKs play till they are in their late 30s!

  • Goalkeepers seem less likely to leave the premier league (I couldn’t find the facts on this but it seems like it) and as such are less likely to go inactive, especially now European teams are added.


Conclusion


I believe in GK and have staked a decent percentage of my collection value on it. The maths to me is clear, this is a low risk bet with potential for a great return, but it is very much a long-term bet. I have picked my strategy, gone at it hard and remain as committed as ever to the returns that GK might make me. Will you?


I can be found on slack with the nick MrWh1te or twitter as @ChallengeFs (please note new twitter name) where I would love to discuss this further or answer any questions you may have.


Good luck on your journey into Footstock!


Vespasian's response:


I have yo-yoed a couple of times between predominantly using Footstock for trading, then for contests and now back to trading. The liquidity is great and trading opportunities are plentiful. I am not alone in the trading market however. The number of active traders in the pool is vastly increased and so has the ability. For great example see @FF_THINKER #barnestobruno challenge (where he started with a 25p Ashley Barnes and is trading towards a Bruno c.£180…and is almost there in under 2 months, with a handful of fixture trades each day).


However, the liquidity and trading opportunities come at a cost to growth (imo). Contest players buy the cards for specific use and then look to sell them, and us traders just do the opposite (like a loaning system really, we sell the cards in the build up and buy back after the contest). This means there is a decent wall of bids and offers on most players at any given time. And whilst we see huge rises on a daily basis, that same player may drop just as much the following day. The cap app is hour to hour, day to day, but not a consistent growth line; so if you don’t take advantage, it can feel like the market is flat through some eyes.


Mr White has the experience in buying Goalkeepers and I think long term this strategy will work. Footstock are implementing many measures to reduce cards in circulation and rather than a gradual price rise to reflect the diminishing supply, I think we will have a sudden realisation of the value and prices will explode (imagine Harry Kane price when suddenly there are none on the market and Spuds are at home to Arsenal?).


I think a couple of important caveats are:


  • When you choose a long term strategy, remember it’s long term when you check your collection daily/weekly! This requires clear thought process and determination. No one can say ChallengeManFS lacks determination! But do you?

  • The other, as ChallengeManFS also warned, swap prices are not fixed. Footstock did relay some messages that the swap for credit system is there to ensure no player is worthless, but also not intended to be a guaranteed profit trading mechanism. I expect levels to stay roughly as they are (it makes sense with pack prices and average card costs etc.) but I wouldn’t bank on it.


This has made me think more strategically about the swaps again – prices on the market are well under, in general, what the cards are worth (both in contest value and swap credit). I’m trading actively and selling players well undervalue (the idea being buying them back even cheaper). At some point people will value the cards higher, so I don’t want too many sell orders in place at any given time.



If you are interested in giving Sorare, Footstock or Football Index a go, use our links at https://www.footballtradinginsights.com/offers to receive special sign up offers - get a head start!


Be Gamble Aware!


Lastly, just a quick note to remind and raise awareness of gambling support on offer.


GAMSTOP is a free support site with options to helping you stop. You can enter all your details on there and then they send them to bookies to stop you being able to join/deposit.


Be Gamble Aware is a more well known support site.


This article explained the method of Bankroll Management which helps to limit your exposure each time you trade/bet.


18+