Insight 21: Why worry about low prices? by ChallengeFS

Dear reader,


In this article, we hear again from ChallengFs (MrWh1te). He discusses what many of us have witnessed- panic selling in a drop and giddy buying in a rise.


Over my time on the platforms I have definitely been guilty of buying on a rise early on. But over time you gain experience. I haven't bought in a rise for a very long time now- I sell. My last selling on a big dip was on the infamous 'Brown Sunday' on Football Index- but that wasn't quite panic, it was the feeling I could sell and rebuy lower which I did. Now I seem to be in a steady anti-the-masses buying and selling pattern based pretty much on Twitter sentiment reading alone!


I think it does take time to get comfortable buying when everyone else is dumping and like wise experience to sell on a rise instead of getting carried away. It really is a simple notion- but it takes practice and then confidence to master it! Overall on these young platforms, you need to know your strategy (this article has a diagnostic quiz that may help), follow market sentiment, research the players you buy and understand what the companies themselves are facing regarding their stability and potential for growth.


For example, there is a lot up in the air around Football Index at the moment, but if you really believe in the long term of the product and that these current dividends will be in place (or better!) next season, you can really mop up some great 'low' prices right now. It is a product call as much as a player call. Sorare- do you back the growth to continue? They don't even have an app yet! Footstock- do you believe in the fixes they've put in place? Will cards become scarce and sought after? Will FS and FI expand to new pooled liquidity territories? You have to also consider potential negative scenarios- Sportstack apparently folded due to low trading activity and some confusion over their new career dividends idea. More and more competitor companies keep popping up too! See 'Players Exchange (Beta)' now listed in our sign up offers.


There is so much to consider on each platform! Thanks to @ChallengeFs for sending in his outlook on these reactions to ups and downs.


Guest articles very much appreciated- just get in touch if you have an insight to your experience, maybe a hindsight- a lesson learnt? Or a reaction to any market changes!


Thanks for reading,

Westy




Introduction


Everyone loves a bargain right? Discounts? Offers? Codes! I know I do. In all walks of life, we love a bargain. You are probably reading this coming from a gambling background. Bet on Salah to score at 2/1. Or enhanced offer of 6/1. You pick the 6/1 every single time right, because everyone loves a bargain!


Or do they?


Footstock, Football Index, Sorare. All similar yet completely different platforms. All have one thing in common; people want to pay more and get a lower % return on their investment. It really makes no sense. Not only do they want to pay more, but they use the excuse of cheaper prices as a sign of a struggling platform. Which is not always correct. As a user, you should want the cards/shares as cheap as possible.


I seek to challenge the misconception, amongst the majority that high, prices = good and low prices = bad. I believe this to be quite simply, wrong.


I have chosen these three sites as I currently have money in them and feel I can speak with reasonable knowledge of them, especially FS and FI.

This article is NOT a discussion about which site is best, which can make more money or is safest. You may contact me on twitter or slack for a more detailed discussion on that if you would like. It is simply a discussion on why cheaper prices = better for the user.


Footstock


It is well known that prices peaked in April 2020 when a huge influx of new users joined due to virtuals and no football. A lot of these people joined from Football Index where cap app was the order of the day. I do have some sympathy for anyone buying in these times (I was one of them). It did however leave legacy issues that the platform are working hard to address.

That said, you need to consider why you are buying. For me there are 5 main reasons.


1) To enter cards in tournaments. If this is you, then the high price of the card does not matter one little bit. All that matters is if the price you paid is going to return you more prize money than it cost. In this situation, the cheaper the cards fall, the better it is for you. If you are winning £300 in a tournament, it is better for you to have paid £100 for the team and make £200 profit, than pay £300 for the team and make no profit (as a one off). You WANT cheap cards.


2) To trade. If this is you, you want as many highs and lows as possible. Big dips and peaks with wide spreads will let you make the most money. Arguably cheaper prices here are better too. You could buy one Bruno for £140 or 466 30p players that go inactive in a few months’ time. Those 30p players could double in value in that time. When trading, the cheaper the buy price, the bigger % gain you stand to make when selling. If you want to make 20% profit per trade, buying at £1.00 and selling for £1.20 is far easier than buying at £140 and selling at £168. And comes at far less risk to price drops.


3) Buying for inactives to credit swap. As above, the cheaper you buy for, the bigger % you make when you either swap for credit or sell to someone else to swap.


4) To play side games. Again, the cheaper you can get a card for, the lower the gamble you are making. Putting a card into roulette? Would you rather buy him for £2 than £6?


5) Capital appreciation. This is the only time it is better for the user for prices to keep going up. However, in my opinion, Footstock is not the sort of site for cap app, and whilst there will be great opportunities for this, it isn’t a strategy that I would employ and is high risk.


Football Index


Capital appreciation used to be a main driver in Football Index, but this has largely been removed by the direction the company has taken. I do not feel that having a big holding permanently is going to work for most of the players on the platform and is not the way to go. There are huge benefits to short term trading that most people overlook. The platform has changed but user expectation hasn’t.


With that in mind, Football Index is now about valuing players solely down to dividends, both current and future, which is how it should be. As such, to get the highest return possible on your money, you need to be buying as cheap as possible.


For example, buy Sancho at £15 and he gets star player and wins 28p that is 1.86% of his value returned. However, buy him at £7.50 and that is 3.72% returned. Would you rather make 1.86% or 3.72% on your money? To me that is a no brainer. Yet it is a feature of Football Index that when prices are low, people are depressed and stop buying and when they are high they start buying and getting excited.


I have to ask, who in their right mind is getting excited at buying at a higher price and returning lower % of money. The answer is simple in my opinion; the only people who want to be buying at a high price are people who made bad trades by buying at a high price. They are wanting prices pumped up so they can exit their bad trades. Or those who got caught out when the metrics of the site changed and want to exit their trades and leave the site.


The way to go now for the user, is to put in low bids, wait for them to be accepted and then list to sell at a higher price, constantly turning over shares. The lower the prices, the better.


The only argument in my opinion for wanting higher prices is that it better safeguards the future of the company, which is currently considered at risk by some, as FI can mint shares at a higher price. This comes at a price of much lower profit margins for users. Which in itself is ok. However, most discussions I have with people around prices on FI are because they have the belief that higher prices mean more profits for them, which isn’t true. And higher prices = higher risk when the player gets injured, moves on, retires, falls out of form, etc.


Disclaimer: I acknowledge that there are some people who have money trapped in because they 1) trusted FI management or 2) trusted so-called experts and their podcasts etc. I do not feel this is their fault but they are being penalised for it.


Sorare


I am newer on Sorare, so I will keep this brief. All of the above points are valid on Sorare.


I will be targetting the D4 game that pays £20 roughly for hitting the points threshold. Lower prices will absolutely make it easier for people to hit this. I have invested £100 at the point of writing and believe I have a team that can hit that £20 every week and represents a 20% ROI per week. That is 5 x £20 and my money is made back already. The more I have to spend on players, the longer that takes and the lower my ROI will be. Cheaper cards immediately make it cost effective to play.


Positives


  • Trading opportunities give higher % at lower cost points.

  • This leads to a bigger ROI and higher profits.

  • Cheaper entry point for new users means more users and a healthier eco-system.

  • Less risk of losing money if prices drop. (If a card is valued at 30p, it can’t drop much compared to a card valued at £200).

Negatives


  • If you have bought in at peak, it could be painful and you might not be able to deal with that properly.

  • Platforms need to make money and they arguably make more when prices are higher. There is a tipping point, between good profits for the site and good profits for the user. Only you can decide where that line is, depending on what your risk/reward appetite is.

  • With cheap prices, platforms run the risk of financial trouble. This could (has) led to a decrease in payouts, which then leads to lower prices and you end up with a race to the bottom where pay-outs have to keep being reduced which in turn make cards/shares worth even less.


Conclusion


It is very easy to blame others when your trades go wrong. You need to analyse why you are buying and what your expectations are. Was your thinking correct?


I very rarely ask for people’s opinion on a player. I do however often ask for people’s opinion on whether they think my reasoning is correct. Get your reasoning right and you will make more good trades than bad, and will have a much better chance at making a profit.


Whilst I acknowledge the deep pain some may be facing due to over-investing at high prices, ultimately that does become your responsibility at some point. Will you trade back then play on/leave? Will you cut your losses and walk? Bankroll management is VERY important and not to be underestimated at all when it comes to playing within your means - see article on using this here. It is sad when it becomes abusive, but I would bet a fair amount that for most of these people, they are betting way more than they are comfortable with. They are scared, so when confronted with facts that they can’t dispute, they simply make threats or result to abusing others. Not to mention, the previous upward trajectory of most player’s costs have led to an awful lot of people not understanding trading or the reasoning behind it, but believing they are experts.


I wish you all luck on whatever platform you choose to bet with.


I can be found on slack with the nick MrWh1te or my new twitter handle @ChallengeFs where I often hold competitions to win packs, cards and shares. See you there!

A couple of our sign up offers have been boosted! Get a head start on the platforms!


Sorare:


⭐ Get one free rare card as a reward if you purchase 5 cards from the new card sales (primary market, both individual card sales and bundle sales), after the 5th card purchase, you will receive the free rare card.

You can choose to go through the onboarding process and pick up random free players as you go through the steps (recommended for learning!) or skip it. If you choose to skip it, you draft your own free starter squad- you will receive an extra 100mil to your budget for this by using our link.

Click here

Terms and Conditions apply

Footstock:


Use this sign up offer to receive:


⭐ 10 top players to use in contests for two weeks

⭐ Access to new user contests including a £200 freeroll every week

⭐ 50% deposit bonus up to £100 (Double as good as the regular deal!)


Click here

Terms and Conditions apply

BeGambleAware

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Players Exchange:



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Whether you are a fan of Basketball, Football, and/or Tennis, you possess expertise that you can get rewarded for. Use your knowledge to invest wisely in players' future career success. Identify young prospects from the sport you like, invest in known players, or simply take advantage of the market growth. Use buy low, sell high principles and create your own strategy on the Sports Stock Market.


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Please Be Gamble Aware!


Lastly, just a quick note to remind and raise awareness of gambling support on offer.


GAMSTOP is a free support site with options to helping you stop. You can enter all your details on there and then they send them to bookies to stop you being able to join/deposit.


Be Gamble Aware is a more well known support site.


This article explained the method of Bankroll Management which helps to limit your exposure each time you trade/bet.

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