Insight 5.1: Vegans, Super Agents, U23s strategy by DanJackKnife


Following on from, and linked to our last Article Insight 5 by me (Westy) about strategy options for traders on Football Index (if you haven't taken the quiz yet, give it a go!), we now hear from a trader who has nailed a lot of the success criteria we talked about and developed a very unique style to selecting his trades. I think it is a great example of putting the theories of Article Insight 5 into real trading and portfolio management practice.


This strategy caught my attention when I was asked a question on High Wide and Handsome podcast (episode 38) about whether I take into consideration what players eat before buying them? To be honest, I took it as a joke (and possibly came across extremely dismissive- as... well.. I was!)


There had been a few food debates on both twitter (where I genuinely recommended banana and mayo sarnies- and would urge you reading this to try it before you knock it!) and on the forum where a few traders were getting tired about hearing what guests on the football index podcasts eat!


However, to my amazement, after the podcast went out, it was clear from DanJackKnife's follow up comments that he was not joking! So I couldn't resist asking Dan for an insight! I found it an excellent insight and quite inspiring! I will now be looking into setting up a fund in my portfolio based on this!

DanJackKnife's strategy insight:


Hello everyone, I’m DanJackKnife (@danjackknife). I’ve been trading on Football Index since 13th December 2017. You may have heard about me from other trading platforms like Footstock too. I’ve also appeared on John Nellis’ (@IRISHFI1) ‘High Wide and Handsome’ podcast (Episode 22) to talk about my journey from the start to November 2019.


Journey Review


During last Christmas 2019, I took some time to review my portfolio. I actually felt a bit tired of chasing and looking for possible PB monsters. Stats are brilliant for researching players but then again the PB competition is getting tougher and finding potential consistent winners that are not at a premium price becomes nil. I began to dissect to find what kind of players I have had success with. Christmas was a nice period for me to carefully analyse my strengths and weaknesses of my trading.


Strengths and weaknesses


Eventually, I concluded that my biggest weakness was trying to analyse stats too much which caused me to sell players from my portfolio more often than I was suppose to. The players that I sold are mainly PB winners that dried up on their dividend returns and their capital dropped too. This became a trend or perhaps turning into a vicious cycle.

So what were my strengths? My strengths were holding players that are:


Integral to the team that they play for (e.g. captain, mercurial, focal point)

Regular set-piece taker which correlates to goal contribution

Managed by a super agent (e.g. Mino Raiola)

U23 potentials

Outfitted by top sponsors

On a specific diet (e.g. vegan)

The first 5 bullet points above are no different to many of us trading. The last bullet is very debatable but then there are some notable players that are performing rather well since a change of diet (source: nssmag.com). Not just footballers but tennis players and UFC fighters have also shown brilliant performances, fitness and longevity. Part of the reason why I got extremely interested in this scientific research, it all started after watching the documentary, ‘The Game Changers’.


Finding your edge


What also sparked and inspired me to try out a new strategy was Steven Goldstein’s appearance on ‘High Wide and Handsome’ podcast (Episode 34). He talked about “finding your edge” and I identified what my edge is and I revealed my strategy on 13th February 2020 on twitter:


My three funds:


Agent fund


These are players with a super agent who would do the utmost to create speculations for either a transfer or bumper contracts.

When to sell?

He has met my expected profit on him

He has changed to a different agent

He hasn’t been performing on MB or PB within a set time


Veg fund


These players with a meat-free diet and ones that I kept an eye on who performed well. I also try to identify any clubs or cities that may have trended on a specific diet. The biggest take away from here is we should consider previously injury-prone players that have changed their diet too.

When to sell?

He has met my expected profit on him

He hasn’t been performing on MB or PB within a set time


U23 fund


Self explanatory and we are trying to find the next potential G.O.A.T.

When to sell?

He has met my expected profit on him

He has reached 24 years old, still on the fringes and no lucrative sponsors


Monthly logs


Ever since employing this strategy, I only check my portfolio weekly which has made me more patient. I decided to keep a log on each month either the 12th or 13th of each month and note down the ROI of each fund.


The ‘Watchlist’ functionality on the Football Index app and website is a brilliant feature and I recommend using this to keep hawking on potential buys. Another strict regime I follow is no more deposits, buy someone with funds made from dividends and also sell to buy.

This was 12th March 2020 before the COVID-19 lockdown has happened:-



This was 13th April 2020 during COVID-19 lockdown:-



Recently 13th May 2020 as COVID-19 lockdown is easing off:-



Conclusion


COVID-19 has made everyone change and adapt their strategy rapidly. Despite this, I haven’t changed my strategy and stuck with it. I will continue this strategy throughout my Football Index journey. I concluded that I needed a new strategy to balance my family and work lifestyle. It has worked so far for me, period. I’m sure there will be new mechanics, scoring matrix and the possibility of the platform being available outside of the U.K.

For now, I‘ve found something that has become a good long term investment strategy for me. The lockdown was a good test of my ‘edge’ and it has been rock solid.


For all traders, find your ‘edge’ and stick with it!

Vespasian's reaction


This article illustrates why we at Football Trading Insights are keen to make the website a football trading community piece with its multi-platform forum and guest writers for articles.


A player's diet would never have crossed my mind in a million years; I wouldn't even expect that data to be available. It's extremely left field, but if it's working and fun for Dan then I think it's brilliant... hopefully he hasn't just lost his edge as we all stalk footballers round the supermarket to try and get the scoop on the next salad muncher!

The Agent idea is also clever, not as extraordinary, as I'm sure to some extent many of us bear in mind when Mino has the next big talent to tout. That said, I'm not sure any of us put aside a fund and follow it as closely or proactively.

This approach doesn't fit closely with my personal strategy and probably won't sway me, but I absolutely respect it and see the intelligence and possible profits behind it. I think it also stresses the importance of having a clear strategy, whatever it may be, to create concise thought and behavioural patterns and the likelihood of success will be greater.


Good luck to Dan and I will follow the Twitter posts all the more keenly now!

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