I thought I would send an article out to say thank you for subscribing to our site. I have noticed numbers increasing recently, even during a period where we aren't actually producing much content! So here is a subscriber (and website) only post- it won't be shared out on social media by us.
Unfortunately, due to our full time jobs being very busy during these Covid19 times, time for trading and writing is scarce other than the odd quick tweet or daily portfolio checks.
The issues with Football Index (FI) have really turned me into a miserable, moaning git! But having spoken to a few other prominent traders and accounts for advice, I am trying to shelve my own criticism of FI management and aim to get back to talking strategy and trades. Enough people in the community are telling FI what to do. It really has regressed to backing a start up company again rather than the footballers. We have little options to act on. One action it seems more and more are taking is evident from the trading figures this week. Trading has definitely slowed down since the IPD announcement. This will cause FI concern and may speed up their action or improve their action. Let's see what happens.
Whilst this has happened at FI, I have noticed on social media timelines and in DMs that Sorare and Footstock have been gaining more traders either joining or coming back to their accounts.
Here is a brief update on where I'm at across the platforms.
Thanks for reading, Westy
We have had months of tricky times on FI. I wont go into detail (some previous articles have and I have certainly gone to town on them in the Forum and on Twitter) but generally, FI keep shaking things up and under delivering on earlier statements made to traders. There was some hope that the CEO change was a genuine effort to turn the tide, but then we had the new CEO's first major communications to traders which straight away involved yet another massive change to our bets and the platform causing a crash. You can't make this stuff up! It has turned the community sour again (just as things had calmed down) and even attracted external criticism from competitors and many complaints. A lot rides on the anticipated replacement he talked about in the announcement.
The curse of hindsight rings true here with me. There was a core of traders on the forum, and on Twitter, that as soon as FI removed IS to themselves, warned the community of a crash and product problems. These were accounts I respected at the time (and still do) and I saw the community turn on them. They backed their words with action- all derisking massively. I derisked a little, but then chose to listen to the majority and back the product in believing it will all turn good. It hasn't yet. If I had derisked totally, like Vespasian and others, I'd be sitting here a much richer man!
So currently, I'm left with a decent amount in a portfolio and a decent amount as a cash balance. In previous articles you will have seen I had near 300 players at one point. I'm now down to 115. As it stands, I'm still trading but not depositing new money. I'm focusing on around 10 players at a time and trading sentiment or performances with them. 5 of them you need no football knowledge for: Messi, Bruno, Kimmich, Robertson and Neymar. They are being relied on to win me dividends and at least hold the price I paid. The other 5 are a bit more data based and I feel do reward your knowledge and patience- like the good old times! So these core 10 are trying to make enough money so I can write off other players in my portfolio/accept whatever IS I can find one at a time.
Here is Messi's 3 month graph. Vespasian and I have been pretty much spot on timing the sentiment with him (with Football Index). Bruno's graph is very similar. In a way, it shows what order books should bring, volatility. Vespasian explained how trading this volatility is a very rewarding strategy in Insight 13.
I see this adapted strategy for my portfolio as a way of dividends and sentiment/performance volatility trading profits gradually paying off the rot of the other 100 odd players in my port with little or no IS as FI have (temporarily?) ripped the value off many of these holds time and time again. We wait to see what new 'trading incentive' is brought in, but we can't trust it will definitely return value to the same players. This strategy is working so far, but it is a very slow process. The end goal of this strategy is to have fully derisked but leave some skin in the game as it is still FUN. This is my strategy until FI improves the platform.
If FI start improving the platform, I'm sure many of us will be keen to put money back in. During these crashes we've seen a sentiment swing causing spikes without anything fundamentally changing at all at the time. So we, and FI, know it doesn't take much to turn the community. I bet there is a lot of money waiting on the next announcement.
We ran a poll about trading towards this announcement:
This shows the majority are being 'risk sensible' and waiting to react. Do we believe there are that many 'In The Knows'? I see no market trends to support this- maybe trends are well hidden in a crash though? Those willing to trade blindly- guessing- are taking a big risk but could be well rewarded. It is a personal call to make. Be Gamble Aware!
If you are new to Football Index, I'd wait and see what happens next. Prices are nearing the lowest I've seen in 3 years. So quite a nice time to join. But we don't know where the value will head with regards to the replacement 'incentives'. If you are a seasoned trader on Football Index, I think I would also wait and see what happens, whether it's to sell or buy. You will now know what you need to do money wise. I'd also be looking for signs of more professionalism and fairness in running the index- despite their Ts&Cs they can't keep changing the rules and get away with it. We've had so many crashes, each time I bet you've told yourself this is the last one and I'm selling up on the next spike but didn't... Try to gain a clear mind of action to the possibilities of this announcement- put it on paper; this often helps traders make decisions based on facts rather than hopes/emotions.
Good luck to all Football Index traders in whatever you decide!
Sorare has been enjoying more interest across social media amongst football traders. Liverpool joining was big news! Crypto news was positive recently. Other platforms are going through major upheaval. This has all lead to more people joining the platform recently.
Personally, I had some tough decisions to make financially. I have had to temporarily remove funds from Sorare. Out of the 3 platforms I'm in, it was the one -at the time- that could release the money I need for a potential house move coming. By luck, I timed it well with the crypto rise before the dip afterwards. If I didn't need the money, I wouldn't worry about the ups and downs of Ethereum too much- it is volatile, you are in a double market with your players. It is perhaps a reminder to make sure it's money in these platforms that you wont need to suddenly withdraw. But we can't all predict a wife's whims can we!
I'm looking forward to getting back in as soon as I can. I like the idea of the product and see it as a big long term project by its makers. Timing a re-entry is key though with regards to Ethereum price. Previously I was going for big names but since following @Leedsarewefoot1 on Twitter, I'm a bit more inspired to try and spot cheaper players. I will also be very keen to be bidding for players in the future EPL squads coming.
Recently, our Pro Gambling consultant (@tom7471) joined Sorare via our link. He's the first to admit, football is certainly not his main area for gambling, he focuses more on boxing etc, so we are looking at a beginner's entry and someone currently entering for the 'just for fun' aspect of Sorare. His free starter budget was 500 million and he managed to build this squad with it:
In his first tournament, he chose Reina over Szczesny as GK. He came 96th. If he had chosen Szcsensy, he would have finished 13th! Either way he won a card: A Maksimenko. So he is off to a good start.
In case you've missed it, here is the most recent Sorare communications from the CEO: https://anchor.fm/sorarepodcast/episodes/Episode-19-eovneo The vision and enthusiasm for the product comes through strong.
Again, we are backing a product as much (maybe more than) we are backing the footballers we buy. There will be many questions to answer about Sorare as it develops. Can high prices be sustained? Are high prices blocking entry? Why pay such high prices? What will we be able to use these cards for in the future? Will Ethereum come under scrutiny, as all crypto may, due to concerns on them impacting the environment? Is it going to dominate online fantasy football - globally!- in the future?
It is still very early days!
As with the other 2 platforms, I have had to cull my spending for the meantime. I'm making do with the squad and pot I had built around the start of the season. So far, I haven't added any Leeds players which has scuppered me a few times now. Maybe I need to jig my squad around a bit!
I have found the market place to be very liquid. I have just sold up quite a bit of youth to fund some 'here and now' players, maybe a Leeds star. I got back in on J Stones just in time for his recent run of form, being only 1 star currently really helps team entries. It seems quite a few of us, including Kammy, entered him this gameweek! Commiserations to those that didn't.
I've been mainly grinding out places in the free rolls and trading around deal of the day to build up credit to enter the higher tournaments. Biding my time to strike the big pots when I feel my squad is best suited.
I still can't decide on picking a majority of players from one team I think will do very well versus selecting individuals from a range of teams that may star in matches. My results seem 50:50 so far. Vespasian is definitely our main man to speak to about strategy in line ups and trading on the market if you need any support or tips.
Footstock have made many mistakes on their journey so far, but I am always impressed with their eagerness and methods to fix them. Deal of the day seems to be working on reducing the amount of cards in circulation, it will take time though as will the adjustments made to the packs and market populations. Overall their communications to traders has been excellent throughout. I still see the CEO dropping into Slack chats with users.
There has been some talk from FS of expanding Footstock to new territories. Previous talks around this indicated they would only do so if it was beneficial to the current users too- so hopefully we are talking about pooled liquidity, pooled competitions etc with another nation. Keep your eyes peeled on their coming updates- make sure you have registered for email contact. This will be a big test for them going forwards and although they haven't quite hyped any territory expansion too much, there will be disappointment to manage if it doesn't happen or if it's not pooled.
See you in the free rolls!
If you are interested in giving Sorare, Footstock or Football Index a go, use our links at https://www.footballtradinginsights.com/offers to receive special sign up offers - get a head start!
Be Gamble Aware
Lastly, just a quick note to remind and raise awareness of gambling support on offer.
GAMSTOP is a free support site with options to helping you stop. You can enter all your details on there and then they send them to bookies to stop you being able to join/deposit.
Be Gamble Aware is a more well known support site.
This article explained the method of Bankroll Management which helps to limit your exposure each time you trade/bet.